The future of Galmudug after a decade of Ahlu Sunna Administration

Ahlu Sunna is Islamist group which came into existence in south and central Somalia for the last two decades.

In 2009, they took over the control of central Somalia and controlled the majority of southern Mudug, Gedo and Galgadud, as well as parts of Hiran, Middle Shebelle, and Bakol.

During unrest situation for the transitional government in Somalia, Ahlu Sunna formed administration in Galgadud region and rapidly extended their power to other regions to become an active political movement in the region.

Also ,Ahlu Sunna succeeded in restoring peace, stability and order in the region and begun to establish close relationship in neighboring countries to get backbone ally to their existence in the region and military support if deem necessary.

After H.E Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took the rule, his government tried to solve the concerns of Ahlu Sunna but many times that attempt ended in failure, this lead to be establishment on 4th July, 2015 Galmudug state without Ahlu Sunna.

Galmudug peace process

On February, 2017 after President Abdikarim Hussein Guled resigns Galmudug politics turned to new era which was leading by his successor.

Mr. Duale begun peace process mediation by the Federal Government of Somalia, the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Government of Djibouti has reached a 10-point agreement and Ahlu Sunna become a part of Galmudug State.

This agreement resulted the division of Galmudug between two parts, a part settled down Adado (transitional center) and the other part settled Dhusamareb.

So, this has led to political turmoil that has prevented Galmudug to achieve good governance.

The political turmoil in Galmudug

The Somali Federal Government carry out new strategies and tactics towards autonomous systems to fulfil its political strategies and getting an administrations that same perspectives can cause peace and prosperity in the country.

However, there was a great misunderstanding and difference perspectives between president Duale and Sheikh Shakir on how to handle politics towards federal government and other regional states.

At the same time, the political struggle has reached a critical point because the international community was denied to interfere the political turmoil in Galmudug.

Therefore, MPs for both houses also tried to solve the problem but one side didn’t satisfied with their role of negotiation because they believe that MPs inclined to Dhusamareb party.

On the other hand, there was a conflict between president Duale and Somali federal government which is based on the terms, because the government argued that the president completed the remaining of the term of his predecessor, which is two years which he opposed.

The government realized and acknowledged to weaken the power of president Duale, so to achieve that the government has reached an agreement to Ahlu Sunna which was the dominant power of the region.

This led the collapse of Galmudug, though president Duale opposed this agreement and claimed he is the legitimate president and it is mandatory to inquire him the issues of Galmudug state.

The election of Galmudug

After Ahlu Sunna and president Duale disagreed the process to deal the Federal government and he transferred election process to the Federal government on July, 2019.
After five months of conflict and turmoil the Federal government succeed to hold the election of Galmudug which welcomed by international communities though Ahlu Sunna, president and some of candidates rejected it.

Additionally, Sheikh Shakir declared that he is the president of Galmudug and also president Duale announced in Galkacyo that he is also the legitimate one and returned election representation from the Federal government.

This resulted fighting between Ahlu Sunna and Galmudug troops packed by the federal government erupted in Dhusamareb which was ongoing one day and eventually Ahsu Sunna leaders have declared to compromise the interest of the people of the region.

The future of Galmudug

More generally, Galmudug started a new era which depends on how the new president will adapt the political situation in the regions because Galmudug need a lot of hard work and come up with strategically thinking to manage the natural resource, restoring security, peace and administration in the region.

Also, Galmudug need implementation of good governance and engage youth to the policy, developing infrastructure like transportation, health, education, energy, water, livestock, improving quality of life, resilience and development of economic sector like Hobyo port.
So, in which direction Galmudug’s future goes depends on how the president fulfills the above issues and on how the federal government support the development of new Galmudug state.

Abdinasir Hassan Nor
Political Researcher