The Italian National Institute of Social Security considers the official death toll for 32,000 coronavirus deaths in Italy to be “unreliable”. Based on the difference in the total number of deaths between March and April compared to previous years, he estimates that it is underestimated by 19,000.
The number of deaths linked to the new coronavirus in Italy between March and April may exceed about 19,000, the authorities announced by the authorities, estimated, on Thursday, May 21, Italian social security, which was considered “unreliable” the official balance sheet 32,000 dead.
In a study published on Thursday and forwarded on the same day by the national media, the Italian National Institute of Social Security (INPS) indicates that 156,429 deaths were recorded in total between March and April in Italy, all causes of mortality together.
This is 46 909 more than expected, based on an average of deaths observed during the same months between 2015 and 2019.
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The number of deaths declared by the Civil Protection – basic assessment announced daily by the authorities – linked to Covid-19 during the same period was 27,938, INPS emphasizes. He therefore wonders this difference of “18,971 deaths, including 18,412 in the north”, the region most affected by the epidemic.
“Given that the number of deaths is quite stable over time, we can with necessary caution attribute to the current epidemic a large proportion of the largest deaths that have occurred in the last two months,” continues INPS.
The social insurance organization estimates that “the quantification of deaths of Covid-19, made due to the number of deceased and positive patients provided daily by the Department of Civil Protection, is now considered unreliable”.
According to INPS, deaths in northern Italy increase by 84%
According to his data, the deaths between March and April in the northern country increased by 84% compared with the average for previous years, against an increase of 11% in the center and 5% in the south.
The evolution of deaths between March and April “was not only contingent on the epidemic but also on the consequences of containment” which prevented some patients suffering from other diseases from being treated, INPS estimates.
The institute cites the case of people “who died of other diseases because they could not find a hospital bed or because they did not go there for fear of infection”.
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But it also takes into account positive consequences such as “reducing the number of road accidents or road accidents”.
The INPS concludes that “in order to better understand the real consequences of the epidemic, it will be necessary to wait for complete eradication of the virus, with an effective vaccine or antiviral therapy”.
The pandemic has killed 32,486 people in Italy, including 26,715 in Lombardy alone, the hardest hit region in Europe, according to the latest official figures released on Thursday by Italian civil protection.