end of game for Marshal Haftar?

Taking control of the entire Western Libya of loyal troops in the GNA sealed the failure of Marshal KhalifaHaftar against Tripoli’s offensive and the military solution to the conflict in Libya. Turkey’s support for Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj seems to have balanced the forces on the ground against the strong man from the east of the country, who now seems very weak, especially as his Egyptian and Russian allies now seem to favor the diplomatic card. Decryption.

Diplomacy cards have been mixed in Libya, where the balance of power has been upset since the takeover of all of western Libya was announced by loyal troops of the Union Government (GNA), recognized by the international community, at the expense of the National Libyan Army (ANL) weapons of Marshal Khalifa Haftar .

The strongman in eastern Libya, who claimed a few months ago that he has controlled 80% of a country in chaos since the fall of Colonel-Gaddafi regime in 2011, has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks.

This major turning point in the conflict that sealed the failure of the marshal’s offensive against Tripoli, launched in April 2019, encouraged GNA’s forces to continue their advance towards the east. On June 6, they launched an attack on the city of Sirte, a strategic lock between east and west, located 450 km east of the capital and in the hands of the ANL since January.

ONEMarshalon the defensive

Long after the military initiative, KhalifaHaftar is now on the defensive in a very unfavorable context. The tide turned toward the beginning of 2020, following the official implication of Turkey in the conflict in support of the government forces of Libya’s prime minister. -Sarraj. The withdrawal, in mid-May, of several hundred Russian mercenaries from the Tripoli front to weaken it.

“It is undeniable that most of the successes recorded in the field by the GNA have been facilitated by the appointee and technology technologist,” explains RachidKhechana, editor-in-chief of the Libyan review Chououn, and former director of Central African Studies on Libya, interviewed by the head of France24. surrounded by Haftar’s forces and therefore to balance the balance on the ground “.

It is in this context that Egypt, one of the foremost foreign supporters with Russia and the United Arab Emirates, flew in aid of the Marshal and on June 6 proposed a ceasefire on Monday, June 8 and a roadmap for Libya. Signs that Camp Haftar is no longer considering a military solution to the Libyan conflict.

If the gun was accepted by the marshal, who was present in Cairo on Saturday, the GNA, which slowed its fighting progress against Sirte, did not follow it up. Khaled al-Mechri, the president of parliament in Tripoli, rejected the plan from a force defeated, according to the chain-Jazeera.

Called the “Cairo Declaration”, the initiative presented by President AbdelFatah al-Sissi and supported by the Russians and the Emirate, in particular, the establishment of an elected presidential council in Libya, a call for negotiations in Geneva, the withdrawal of all foreign fighters and the dismantling of the militia and the surrender of weapons.

AguilaSaleh, aoptionat Khalifastaples?

Now that the hour seems negotiated, can the father embody the situation in his foreign sponsors?

“We are already seeing Egypt and Russia working together on political alternatives to Haftar that could save their spheres of influence in eastern Libya,” said TarekMegerisi, political analyst at the European Council for International Relations, interviewed by AFP.

The very noticeable presence in Cairo of AguilaSaleh, President of the Elubas Parliament in Cyrenaica (east), at the time of the announcement of the Sissi Plan for Libya, is an indication that seems to play against KahlifaHaftar.

Much more open than the marshal in dialogue with the rival power installed in Tripoli, AguilaSaleh also met in late May with the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov. They talked together about “the urgent need to start a constructive dialogue with all the Libyan political forces”.

Although all attempts to halt hostilities have so far failed, despite UN efforts, AguilaSaleh’s profile could favor the resumption of dialogue as the GNA forces approach the “oil moon”.

In April, AguilaSaleh proposed an eight-point plan to end the crisis in which a new presidential council would collectively assume the functions of supreme commander of the armed forces while drafting a constitution for the country. April 27 that he had a “people’s mandate” to govern only Libya.

“Moscow and Ankara can agree to share Libya as in Syria”

“The appearance on the stage of AguilaSaleh, which maintains old relations with Moscow, shows that the pro-Haftar powers are beginning to study the alternatives to the marshal to open the way for negotiations between Libya, because GNA cannot regain control over the balance. everything in Libya, said Rachid Khechana.

And to conclude: “If the negotiations, hitherto blocked by Haftar, resume, they will start from zero or almost, that is, where they were before the ANL offensive on Tripoli, while they collapsed, Moscow and Ankara could agree on a partition of Libya as in Syria “.