PS and Republicans are not dead

The second round of the 2020 municipal elections gave hope to Republicans and socialists, who were overwhelmed by the dying man. Fragile at the national level, the two historical parties remain deeply entrenched in local life.

PS and LR are still in motion. The results of the second round of municipal elections, Sunday, June 28, showed that the Socialist Party and Republicans are not dead. They even live a lot. Does this mean that these two historical parties in French political life in a new dynamic? “No, hurry to relativize OlivierRouquan, political scientist and researcher at the Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences (Cersa). With a closure of overcrowding exceeding 60%, we can no longer talk about the beginning. The voters who have moved are more activists and unsympathetic. They do not reflect the entire French elections. But PS and LR have, after all, proven their robustness and their attachment to the local network. The other parties EELV, RN or LFI cannot say the same. “

To read: Municipales 2020: an unprecedented cast of votes, chronicled by a announced disillusionment

Admittedly, the blue wave that had swept across France in 2014 became green in 2020. And the high-record record remains mixed due to the large losses collected in Bordeaux, Marseille against environmental activists and Perpignan’s removal of the RN. Still, the law won “more than half the cities” by the medium-sized welcoming party’s tenors. “The tree must not hide the forest. The right is the majority, we will probably be about 60 to 65% of cities with more than 9000 inhabitants, this is significant,” assured Sunday night at France2 the mayor of Meaux Jean-Francois Copé, himself re-elected (76.35%).

“Favorable”

The Les Républicains party has really comforted its presence in Saint-Etienne, Reims, Caen, Mulhouse, Auxerre, Limoges, Orléans, Biarritz, Lorient, Montélimar, Auxerre, Colmar and even Belfort. “We return to victory after the failure of the presidential election, legislative, European,” assured his side president of Republicans Christian Jacob, who expected much of that election to revive the party’s dynamics.

To read: municipal 2020: after the green wave, the return of the left in the foreground?

In addition, the Republicans’ big figures are still in place in their respective races: François Baroin in Troyes, Jean-François Copé in Meaux, Christian Estrosi in Nice, Natacha Bouchart in Calais. In Paris, Rachida Dati is not surprisingly second (between 31.7 and 32.7% of the vote) behind Anne Hidalgo (between 49.3 and 50.2%). But in this complicated battle, the former Sarkozy minister could hope for his camp: “We have corrected the law in Paris,” she said.

The right offers communist bastions

The right also registered beautiful catches in Toulouse, Lorient, Metz, Arles, Villeneuve-sur-Lotet Lisieux. Republicans even paid for the luxury of throwing communist bastions in Gardanne (Bouches-du-Rhône) and Aubervilliers, Villeneuve-Saint-Georges and Champigny-sur -Marne in the Parisian suburbs. For the right, these smaller media victories are crucial. “This appeals well to senatorial elections, but also to departments and regional ones to come,” predicted Christian Estrosi.

“These results effectively indicate that the court can maintain a large battalion in the Senate (during the September senatorial election, the editor’s note),” OlivierRouquan concedes. cities than the other parties during these municipal elections are their number of voters themselves.

PS “always the first left”

In PSaussi’s lines, we are very happy. It must be said that the socialists retained their majority of their positions on Sunday, especially in Paris, Nantes, Rennes, Lille, Villeurbanne, Dijon and Le Mans. , Bourges, Saint-Denisou still Saint-Ouen. And how to evoke the green wave without mentioning the precious support of the socialists in Lyon, Strasbourg, Bordeaux and Marseille? These big cities are all spent on Sunday evening in the hands of the Greens, thanks to the agreements concluded between the EELV, PS and the Communist Party.

An alliance that is reinvigorating the left’s hopes, now dreaming of “a social-ecological bloc”, to use the expression of the head of PS, Olivier Faure. “A tremendous momentum is rising all over France,” he said. . “The entire left and environmental activists win huge victories. This is what is happening, we have something in this country that is born, a social-ecological block that must now be consolidated.”

Ragaillardi, PS even thinks highly of the presidential election. The green wave “must not make us forget good socialist behavior, always the first party on the left, believe for their part Jean-Christophe Cambadélis. What we did with this election is the line built for two years with Olivier Faure, whose strategy is the It must be the first step in rebuilding a left that can win [la présidentielle] year 2022. “

The premium for the left

The many victories harvested by PS and LR are part “in a context of health crisis during which the old parties had some reassurance,” continues OlivierRouquan. Let’s also remember that the mayor has for decades benefited from the bonus for people who left “. Of the 30,000 mayors elected in the first round, two-thirds were outgoing mayors. Under these conditions, it was not easy for the new parties to console these ultra favorites in their own right.

But to the left as to the right, they seem to be necessary to curb combustion. “The two party stories always remain in a defensive position at the national level,” estimates OlivierRouquan. “If PS knew how to seduce in the big cities by uniting with the Greens, abstinence remains the biggest winner of this survey. Only one thing is clear: the French people’s disinterest in politics is deep and established.”