During his two years in the Somalia’s presidential palace, president farmajo and his staunch and circle team accumulate unpredicted tangible confirmation of foreign policy accomplishment.
It may be his major achievement was his pragmatic foreign policy approach towards the political change of Ethiopia and the peace deal between Ethiopian and Eretria which became regional political stability of the IGAD member states.
How over he did a less and little about his promise in the period of his campaign – the security, fighting corruption, seeking Somalia national unity and pan Somalia, getting a suitable remedy to the endless mission of the war on terror, improving Somalia living standards, reforming ragtag clan rebels, extending a appeasing hand to his political opponents and inventing the best and agreeable idea of Somalia political stability which is a real major challenge facing him.
In this de facto how ever there had been a continuing chronic failures and status quo crisis that farmajo faced and met when he took the oath of the office. These including imposed federal system, futile 4.5, getting the answer to complex political and security problem (law and order) after long years of anarchy which will be a pain in the neck, a heavy cost , divisions of Somalia clans politically, interestingly, socially, crisis of rights and lefts, out of security which caused long absent of Somalia governing system and constant meddling of Somalia internal affairs regionally and internationally because of long hospitalized Somalia situation and lack of recovery for more than a quarter century.
However The Beleaguered president of farmajo first come the Somalia public support at 2009 when he became the only Somalia prime minister who oppose the AMISOM influence and many unwise external orders.
He was regarded a patriotic, nationalist, and he rejected the extraordinary reliance on external authority. His six months successful performance of 2009 had brought his public support and gave him popularity and unimpeachable influence. Throughout his running to the president he promised- if he elected- he will shrink all the major foreign influence to Somalia internal affairs and returning Somalia dignity internally and externally.
This resulted quick expulsion of UN envoy to Somalia and unexpected diplomatic cut off between Somalia and its long friend neighbour of Kenya. Some Somalia analyst called such kind of behaviour and mentality is policy idiocy, an ill-advised, shooting Somalia foots and blowback to Somalia 17 years of fragile federal government.
Howe ever the simple reality in Somalia is that no government after siyad regime (military Junta) could control fully the Somalia in general and the capital muqdishu in particular. Any way The Somalia public expectation was at least the farmajo regime can return law and order in the capital.
In this issue there is genuinely pessimistic about the capability of the current regime for their handling the security of the capital. In the capital muqdishu the security strategy of the government is relying on multiple roadblocks in every street of the capital which many Somalia laymen believe as the obstacle for security and will create a hatred view towards the current regime and finally system phobia.
The roadblocks are also impeding the movement of the ordinary citizen and their small business like shops and hotels became an abandon and obliterate place. In this scenario there many questions which is whether the country can escape the fragmentation, dismemberment and spilt in to pieces, balkanization and mini banana states.
It’s also there is a growing questions of the ability of the regime the establishment of strong military, or paramilitary and Somalia security personal in order to implement the policy of quick exit strategy of The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) if the ramous of downsizing the AMISOM became real. Many Somalia analysts believe The AMISOM and the war on the terror resulted endless mission and failure strategy because the mission is continuing more than one decade.
The AMISOM and war on terror are a part of the problem because their mission of Somalia became fruitless, futile peacekeeping operation, direct foreign intervention, implementation of the foreign agenda, new creation of sanctuary and safe haven to Islamic fundamentalist and literalist and battleground between al-Qaida and America. This was is not the benefit of Somalia. The Somalia society eager and prefer an achievable UN operation.
However it had completed two years of farmajo’s possession. The two years of his term was full of mixture events which are both torment and palpable. For his staunch supporters called these two years of farmajo’s rule as successful years.
They obeyed the regime blindly but his perfidious and opponent personals called two years of devouring and hinders, police state, absent of political openness, fearful, total mute of all voice dissent and black years. Regardless Optimists and Pessimists arguments of the regime and media cacophony there is a public demand from the current regime.
The public had measurement and political thermometer. They concern how the current regime respond in the area of security, seeking Somalia unity, reducing the Somalia clan and inter- clan egoism, improving the lives of millions of Somalia’s , encouraging policies representing common ground, political consensus which is the core for building this wandering broken nation.
In the nutshell the government needs to introduce broad based policy approach: dealing rationally, wisely and consensus policy to the regional states; abating the culture of political derision; defusing clan inter and intra fighting; creating reconciliation between punt land and Somalia land and reducing the tension between them; appointment of technocratic government and reducing the Diaspora majority ruling system and mentality; opening a direct talk to alshabab, and defying all the dictates from externals; smoothing the road of upcoming election and ensuring the credibility and transparent of the election not to be sham selection, inventing agreeable model of election ( Somalia traditional elder or new model) such as Proportional representation (PR) and finally in my opinion the achievement of the domestic affairs depend on all the meaningful and tangible success of external foreign policy.
With Somalia general election is near and linger less than two years and with the exacerbate security of the capital there is a growing public disobedience and the need for new strategy about the security of the civilians.
These events and the emergence of uncontrolled explosions and the nature of Somalia opposition which their aim is to topple the current regime regardless their legal and institutional framework and the bad consequences of that action because they can eat a horse for power and Somalia parliament inactive about reaching consensus any national agenda will create mistrust and displeasure.
Furthermore the current regime is facing with declining political fallout internally when they failed the stability of the country politically, economically and socially. The inability of the government to respond the needs and wants of millions of Somalia ordinary citizen can produce anti government mentality.
In this view there is a growing anti- government movement which can lead many populations to go back to their long struggle which was anti- totalitarian regime and no more military junta again. In the end of my synopsis I call out the Somalia religious leaders, Somalia academicians, Somalia traditional leader and the Somalia friends such as IGAD, turkey and Qatar governments can take some steps to assist put off this terrible picture which leads the Somalia future in to uncontrollable situation.
OSMAN HASSAN SALAH (XASAN CADE)