At the beginning of the transitional federal government in mid of 2004, the process of the Somali constitutional wasn’t yet completed, and the power of the federal institutions still in mess that cause a long dispute between federal government and autonomous regions based on federalism issues such as politics, security and natural resources.
Each part believes that constitution caters for rights to administrate above issues and many conferences to solve these conflicts held in Baidoa, Kismanyo and Garowe.
Despite contradictions misunderstanding and chaos, presidents H.E Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and H.E Hassan Sheikh Mohamud tried to solve through reconciliation process and make close union together between two parts without third part or going one of the neighbor countries in the region.
Even though there were many circumstances coverage during these process, H.E Hassan Sheikh government succeeded the completion of regional administrations building and preparation of 2016 elections and the selection of both houses.
The root causes of the conflict
Since the rise of the regional administrations urged that federal government failed accomplishment of the federal system to whole of the country and completion of the reconciliation, peace process and strengthening cooperation between federal government and regional administrations.
Therefore, some concerns of the regional administrations based on the expedition, the finalization of the federal constitution, strengthening federalism, politically and economically, unifying the national plan for distribution, projects and the economy, not to interfere in federal and state elections, to work for reconciliation and national unity and more.
Also the two parts (Federal government and regional administrations) splitting over how to tackle gulf crises, through some regional administrations support the blockade of Qatar by the Saudi Arabia and its allies where federal government took another action support the Qatar which is neutrality which marks them not to support neither of them but can be seen to be leaning towards Qatar.
After some regional administrations refused to participate meeting , H.E President Farmajo announced ad- hoc meeting to take place in Mogadishu between 5th up to 6th July, 2020 .after then there was on a phone meeting between regional administrations agreed to meet in Dusmareb on 8th July, 2020.
As well as that meeting invited to host the federal government heads to solve and agreed electrical model and the need to strengthen relations between the two levels of government (the federal government and regional administrations).
Before this meeting Prime Minister Hassan Khaire opposed the extended timeframe noting elections must happen it’s assigned in line with constitutional dictates.
During this meeting the two parts (the federal government and regional administrations), every part has his own agenda and it is not easy reach an urgent agreement so this shows how the opinions are different and eventually reached to establish a technical committee to work out details of an electoral model and meet again.
Expectation of upcoming election
In this period, the political stakeholders carefully oversees this transition period and how the politics changes as all levels of the government and regional administrations leaders strive the representatives of lower and upper house in upcoming parliament elections.
The election was marred by the electoral model which is not yet agreed one person one vote or expanded participation model, though international communities waiting the methodology of Somali political stakeholders agreed.
Moreover, the preparation to hold a presidential and parliament elections aren’t underway the political parties expecting a historic milestone along that country’s long road back to security, stability and prosperity in Somalia.
All in all, the predictions of Somali election reveals that regional administrations have great impact to the upcoming elections in Somalia and the next president that will be elect because they are main power that select the upper house and the parliament ones.
In nut shell, Somalia election seems to be had deep road dependency on stakeholders, regional administration and foreign input but hope for fair and free election like the previous ones will happen for peace and stability to prevail in Somalia.