Somalia’s politics tends Path-Dependency

Samareeb 4, as the last resort for Somalia’s election impasse!
Samareeb 4, as the last resort for Somalia’s election impasse!

The horn of Africa country which is recovering the mayhem and the destruction caused by the civil strife in 1991, is currently encountering political deadlock.

The incumbent government under Farmajo-Role leadership unleashed earlier the schedule of the election where the government marked from 1st November-30th November the selection of the delegates and the preparation of the election places. While the Upper-House election is intended to take place from 1st December-to 10th December.

Respectively, the House of the People’s election is marked to be taken place from 10th December-27th December. Finally, the election of the president, and the speakers of the two-chambers is planned to be orchestrated from 1st January-8th February. In this regard, there are bunch of challenges that, the country is confronting including but not limited insecurity; butt heads among the politicians; lack of immaculate federal architecture; external meddling from the near abroad, and the Gulf-States.

These conspicuous grueling factors can jeopardize the country which its institutions are yet fragile. The loggerheads among Somali politicians including the federal member states, and the federal government led the exogenous intervention to be effective and egregious in the ground.


It’s political culture when the election is imminent to be seen a denigration between the incumbent and the potential leaders of the country. But this time, both the oppositions, and the incumbent tended harsh-criticism. This mutual-accusation can only add insult to the injury, and has nothing to do with the interest of the nation.

For instance, for the last two-week, there was simmering debates and discussions about Anti-Ethiopia, and Anti-Kenya ideologies which the Somali people were oscillating unscrupulously. The incumbent government is enriching its Anti-Tigray-Kenya notion, while the oppositions are giving some favor to Kenya, and at the same period demonizing Ethiopia.

These two-notions dominated the social media for the last two-weeks where the supporters of the two-groups were spreading provocative speeches via media naively and obsequiously. Far and wide, each country has policies which is implemented by different actors.

In my knowledge, Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Gulf-States have their unyielding policies which they intended to leverage in Somalia regardless who leads Somalia, and When? So, the defamatory speeches which is emanating from the both sides, and mimicking by the both sides’ supporters are unnecessary, uncivilized, and unschooled propaganda. The meddlers tended bothsidesism, while the Somali politicians are divided as always. 

The overstated Electoral Commission

Somalia’s prime minister his Excellency Roble, 04th November last month, appointed the federal indirect electoral team (FIET). Right after the appointment of the commission, the speaker of the Upper-House, the oppositions rebuked, and accused the committee that, some of the NISA members who are staunches to the incumbent are infiltrated.

As a result, the federal electoral team is marked by vociferous and excoriation from the oppositions. The government persisted that, the commission is transparent, and will serve equally, and impartially. Additionally, the government argues that, the former government led by his Excellency Hassan Sheikh added the previous electoral commission in 2016, some of his inner-circle, and now he is opposing this commission. 


Somali had a fledgling and crawling democracy from 1960-69, but when the military seized the power in 1969, the situation becomes the other way around, and the country has undertaken iron fist under the rule of the military. In 1991, the country undertook civil war which caused the loss of lives and limb. Since 2000, there was successive governments from Transitional National Government (TNG) in 2000-2004, to Transitional Federal Governments (TFGs) from 2004-2012, and Federal Governments (FGs) from 2012-up to date.

In my knowledge, one thing is remarkable in Somalia, which is the peaceful transfer of power from the predecessor to the successor. Because, Somalia is still a fragile country which needs to bounce back from the legacy of the civil war, and bootstrap. In order to avoid any resurrection of the old-destructive mentality, and civil strife, there is a drastic need for having open-minded, far-looking, and inclusiveness. The culture of monolithic, knee-jerk actions; all bark and no bite; lip service is unbecoming and daunting. Because, all these desponding cultures will affect negatively the future of the country.

As a caveat, I urge famously the opposing parts, the incumbent, and the oppositions to reach-out an agreement in order to hammer-out before a third part to be intruded.

Anwar Abdifatah Bashir. Author, and Horn of Africa Geopolitics Analyst.