Is the Ukrainian military really a David against the Russian Goliath?

As tensions escalate ahead of Friday’s crisis talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the Ukraine crisis, memories of the Russian army that quickly overpowered the Ukrainian military during the annexation of Crimea in 2014 have resurfaced. But Ukraine has significantly improved its defense capabilities – with more than a little help from NATO countries.

With US President Joe Biden on Thursday making it “absolutely clear” that the entry of all Russian troops into Ukraine is “an invasion”, Washington has continued the pressure and warned Moscow of a “serious” response.

Britain, meanwhile, added more concrete pressure this week when it announced it was sending military equipment to Ukraine, mostly short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defense.

The Ukrainian authorities, for their part, are sounding more and more urgent alarms since Russia deployed about 100,000 troops, according to US estimates, along its eastern border.

On Wednesday, Russia announced that it had moved troops to Belarus for what they called joint military exercises, giving the country the opportunity to attack Ukraine from the north, east and south. Barely 24 hours later, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Thursday that it would hold huge naval exercises over four seas – the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic and Mediterranean – which include the deployment of more 140 warships and support ships.

Moscow continues to insist that it has no plans to invade, but has stuck to a number of demands – including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO – in exchange for downsizing.

The United States has meanwhile given the green light for the Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to speed up with US-made weapons to Ukraine, says a source familiar with the permits to AFP. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas confirmed on Thursday that his country had sent defense and other aid to Ukraine in an attempt to deter a Russian attack.

Last year, Biden’s administration approved the $ 650 million transfer of US weapons to Ukraine, of which $ 200 million in December 2021 alone.

There is no doubt that Ukraine is increasing its arsenal in the event of a Russian attack.

But can the Ukrainian military really oppose a Russian force made up of hundreds of thousands of ground troops, as well as tanks equipped with short-range missiles and supported by naval and air forces?

A “rude awakening for Kiev” Back in 2014, during the annexation of Crimea, Russian soldiers easily bypassed Ukrainian defense. At the time, “the Ukrainian army was in a rather catastrophic state,” Julia Friedrich, a researcher at the Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute, recalled in an interview with FRANCE 24.

“The events of 2014-2015 were a rude awakening for Kiev, which then embarked on major military reforms,” ​​Nicolo Fasola, a security specialist in the former Soviet territories at the University of Birmingham, explained in an interview with FRANCE 24.

It was an effort that initially worked. The Ukrainian army has grown from about 6,000 combat soldiers to nearly 150,000, according to a summary by the US Congressional Research Service conducted in June 2021. “Since 2014, Ukraine has been trying to modernize its tanks, armored vehicles and artillery systems,” notes.

Kiev’s financial efforts to modernize its military over the past seven years have been significant. The share of the national budget allocated to military spending increased from 1.5 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2014 to more than 4.1 percent in 2020, according to World Bank figures. This share of defense spending is higher than most NATO countries and is similar to Russia’s military spending.

In addition, US anti-tank missiles and Turkish drones Ukraine are no longer alone with Russia. Since 2014, NATO as an organization as well as some member states have “provided significant assistance, equivalent to approximately $ 14 billion,” Fasola estimated.

The United States has been the leading supplier of military hardware such as radio equipment, military trucks and more than 200 Javelin man-portable anti-tank missiles. Britain, Poland and Lithuania have also provided Ukraine with defensive weapons.

Even Turkey has come to Ukraine’s aid by selling its famous Bayraktar TB2 drones. “While US-equipped weapons, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles, have received the most headlines in Ukraine’s weapons stockpile, Kiev’s less encouraged support from Turkey has sounded the alarm in Moscow,” the Washington Post noted over the weekend.

The use of Bayraktar TB2 drones in Libya, Syria and in particular the Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has really made headlines. But Friedrich notes that although “it is true that these machines proved crucial in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is difficult to know what impact they may have on a possible conflict with Russia, because the configuration is so different”.

Trained, motivated troops losing the Soviet legacy Ukraine’s military modernization is not just quantitative or limited to material hardware. “There has been tremendous progress in training and preparation for combat,” said Gustav Gressel, Russia’s Military Affairs Specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

According to Gressel, one of the main weaknesses of the Ukrainian defense system came from the military doctrines that had been developed during the Soviet era. “Moscow therefore knew very well what to expect and could prepare accordingly,” he explained.

The Soviet defense heritage highlights the importance of military training provided by NATO instructors in Ukrainian bases, such as the Military Law and Order Service (MLOS) training center, established near the western Ukrainian city of Lviv near the Polish border. “This has made it possible for officers and soldiers to learn old reflexes that are predictable for Moscow,” Gressel said.

The second asset of the Ukrainian army comes from its soldiers. “Most of them enlisted in 2014-2015. So it is a voluntary act to defend the homeland, which means that they are highly motivated and have high morale,” says Glen Grant – senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation who has worked in Ukraine with the country’s military reform – in an interview with FRANCE 24. “Between the Javelin missiles, the drones and the morale of the troops, the Ukrainian army has become a formidable opponent,” he added.

This is especially true in the eastern Donbass region, where Ukrainian troops have experienced a conflict that has raged for more than seven years against Russian-backed separatists.

Russia’s air edge But for Ukraine, the situation in the Donbass is twofold. “It is a low-intensity conflict, fairly close to guerrilla warfare, and this has led the Western world and Kiev to focus on military doctrines and equipment suitable for this type of confrontation, while in the event of an attack from Russia it will probably be very different, says Fasola.

In concrete terms, for example, “the Americans have supplied sniper rifles to the Ukrainian army to counter Russia, which uses the Donbass as a training ground for its own snipers,” Gressel stated. But this type of weapon will not be of much use against Russian tanks crossing the border.

The specific nature of the clashes in the Donbass, which are mainly skirmishes, have not seen the use of Ukrainian air force.

Military experts believe that the modernization of Ukraine’s air force has been marginal and that aviation is still the weak point of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Most of the country’s bombers and fighter jets are more than 30 years old, and pilots are poorly trained and poorly paid. “That is why, if Russia decides to attack, and uses its planes correctly, air support should quickly give them a decisive advantage, despite all the modernization of the Ukrainian army,” Gressel said.

Assessing the “cost-effectiveness of an offensive” If Russia decides to invade, Friedrich acknowledges that “it will be very difficult for Ukraine and its allies to maintain a balance of power”.

But as the saber-rattling over Ukraine picks up, military supplies such as Britain’s anti-tank missiles could play an important role, according to Dumitru Minzarari, a specialist in Eastern Europe at the German Institute for International Affairs. “They have strategic and material value,” Minzarari said in an interview with FRANCE 24. “From a strategic point of view, this indicates a significant possibility that the country providing this military support will decide to become even more involved in an armed conflict. breaks out. out, “he explained.

In addition, “the Ukrainian army may inflict further damage on invading Russian forces with this equipment, which may have a deterrent effect. The anti-tank weapons supplied by Britain are a good illustration of this: every Russian offensive will inevitably involve armored vehicle maneuvers, and if Ukraine has modern weapons to counter them, this could prompt Moscow to reconsider its assessment of the cost-effectiveness of an offensive, “Minzarari concluded.

That is why Grant, from the Baltic Security Foundation, believes it is important to provide the Ukrainian army with “everything that can strengthen the brigade’s mobility and resistance, such as ambulances, transport vehicles, radios.

“Because the longer Ukraine can keep the fighting going, the bloodier it will be for Russia, which will be all the more dissuasive,” he said.

This article has been translated from the original into French.