“Preventing Further Conflict: Sudan Showdown Heightens Risk of Regional Spillover”

Is Sudan teetering on the brink of civil war? The country has been embroiled in a bitter clash between two of its top leaders since last Saturday, with neither junta leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan nor his second in command, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, willing to hear outside mediation efforts.

The longer the dispute continues, the higher the likelihood that domestic and international armed groups may become involved in the conflict.

Dagalo, or Hemedti, recently freed detained Egyptian soldiers, possibly as a nod towards his rival, who trained under former Egyptian coup leader and current president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Since the overthrow of former dictator Omar al-Bashir four years ago, Hemedti has built relationships with his own set of allies, such as Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, dispatched mercenaries to fight in Yemen as part of the Saudi-led coalition, and denied recent reports that he was sent ammunition by a Libyan rebel leader.

The question now is whether Sudan will be pushed into a civil or proxy war. Alessandro Xenos, Juliette Laurain, and Imen Mellaz produced this piece.