Airfares from Europe to the United States have declined to levels not witnessed since prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, with travelers from Western Europe leading a decrease in travel to the US, a trend anticipated to persist at least until next month.
According to preliminary data from the US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) within the US Department of Commerce, overseas arrivals to the United States decreased by 2.8% in May compared to the previous year.
Travel from Western Europe saw a drop of 4.4% in May, while travel from Eastern Europe experienced an increase of 4.6% during the same timeframe.
Forward bookings indicate that sustained declines may be forthcoming, with overall inbound bookings to the US in July down 13% year-over-year, as reported by analytics firm OAG Aviation.
A stronger dollar has also deterred some travelers.
In March, travel from Western Europe was down 17% year-over-year, according to the NTTO.
During the first quarter, average round-trip economy airfares for over 50 routes from the US to Europe decreased by an average of 7% year-over-year, with fares between Atlanta, Georgia, and London falling by 55%, based on data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
US consumers searching for deals and booking closer to their departure dates have also contributed to the decline in demand from Europe, leading to cheaper travel options.
“The fewer seats occupied by European travelers to the US, coupled with a slower growth rate in US outbound travel to Europe compared to last year, is likely to make 2025 a challenging year for profitability on transatlantic routes,” stated Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics.
This summer, round-trip ticket prices from the US to Europe are down 10% compared to a year ago, according to travel booking app Hopper.
Average fares stand at $817 (€709) per ticket, aligning with prices seen in the summer of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
Prominent carriers such as Air France KLM and Germany’s Lufthansa are anticipating a slowdown in activity.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr remarked that the company expects diminished demand in the third quarter, while Air France KLM CEO Ben Smith noted a “slight pullback” in transatlantic traffic and intends to lower prices to maintain full cabins on its transatlantic flights.
Airlines like Lufthansa and US carrier United Airlines report that increased demand from US travelers flying to Europe is balancing out the decline of Europeans traveling in the opposite direction. United stated that international bookings from Europe were down 6% in the first quarter, but noted that demand from the US was compensating for this decline.
Delta Air Lines reported that 80% of its long-haul international demand originates from the US, with fares in this market being “significantly higher” than in other parts of the world.
Lufthansa plans to market its transatlantic flights more towards Americans due to the higher demand, even as travel from Western Europe shows some recovery. Travel from this region to the US increased by 12.1% in April before declining again in May, according to NTTO data.
As of mid-May, there are 4.3% more international flights scheduled to depart from US airports for international destinations this summer, according to Hopper.
“We feel really optimistic about the transatlantic market,” said American Airlines CFO Devon May at a Wolfe Research transportation and industrials conference in May.
