Twenty years ago in Moscow’s Red Square, former US President George W. Bush sat alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
The leaders from France, Germany, and various other European nations were also present at Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in 2005.
At that time, it seemed as though the rifts from the Cold War had been smoothed over.
Russia had welcomed Western investors into its market over a decade earlier, and after experiencing the economic turbulence of the Yeltsin era and the Chechen conflicts—one instigated by Mr. Putin—it was positioning itself as a dependable and stable partner to the West.
This collaboration was significant, as the Western Allies and the former Soviet Union had united to defeat the dangers posed by Nazi Germany.
Thus, it was logical to jointly honor the sacrifices made by the war generation, especially the hardships endured by the Soviet civilian population during that time.
Approximately 27 million Soviet citizens lost their lives due to Nazi Germany’s invasion and occupation of present-day Belarus, western Russia, and Ukraine.
However, the initial détente between Moscow and the West, which lasted from the 1990s into the mid-2000s, was short-lived.
Russia’s aggressive actions—starting with its invasion of Georgia in 2008, followed by the annexation of Crimea in 2014, a proxy conflict in eastern Ukraine, and culminating in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022—ended that period of cooperation.
Western leaders could no longer contemplate attending Victory Day parades in Moscow.
As yesterday’s commemoration was streamed live, it became clear where Russia’s geopolitical interests currently lie and who it regards as its allies.
Instead of a U.S. president, it was China’s President Xi Jinping who took the honor of being the distinguished guest, seated beside Mr. Putin at the grand military parade.
Mr. Xi’s four-day state visit to Russia this week highlighted the increasingly close geopolitical and economic relationships between Moscow and Beijing.
China is essential for Russia’s economic viability.
Since the onset of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, trade between the two nations has surged, particularly with China purchasing discounted Russian energy exports, including crude oil.
Although China does not arm Russia, it grants access to critical technologies such as semiconductors that can bolster Russia’s defense sector.
These components also have civilian applications, providing Russia with a means to acquire necessary technology in light of Western sanctions cutting off alternative options.
The display of friendship at the Kremlin was markedly reduced compared to two decades ago, now largely comprised of former Soviet republics governed by autocrats, along with a mix of one-party socialist states and unconventional allies.
As one autocrat after another made their way to the Kremlin to the sound of military band music and the chants of “Hoorah” from thousands of Russian troops across Red Square, the roster of attendees included leaders from Burkina Faso, Cuba, Eritrea, Egypt, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (notorious for its human rights abuses), Venezuela, and Vietnam among the 29 countries represented.
Brazil stood out as the only major economy apart from China present, also being one of the few democracies at the event.
Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, was in attendance, as were the heads of the pro-Russian breakaway regions of Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
High-ranking North Korean military officials, decked with medals, received a warm welcome from Mr. Putin during the event, illustrating the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea and the latter’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
Most leaders (and all autocrats) donned the black and orange ribbon emblematic of the Russian military.
Brazilian President Lula Inácio da Silva refrained from wearing the Russian army’s ribbon.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the only European leaders at the event, also smartly opted not to wear this symbol.
Both leaders have maintained economic ties with Moscow amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine.
However, for Mr. Fico, whose interactions within the EU can be delicate, openly supporting the military that invaded Ukraine would likely be viewed unfavorably. The same applies to Mr. Vučić, whose nation seeks EU membership.
Russian authorities have sought to manipulate the symbolism and historical significance of Victory Day to bolster support for its invasion of Ukraine, framing the current conflict as a patriotic endeavor in line with the legacy of Soviet soldiers who triumphed over Nazi forces.
While the gathering of leaders in Moscow reflected Russia’s limited diplomatic options, it also showed that it is not entirely isolated.
China’s backing, both diplomatically and economically, remains a significant asset.
Although Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declined an invitation to the Moscow parade, India’s reliance on Russian energy ensures Moscow’s revenue streams continue to flow post-Western sanctions.
The presence of Brazil’s Lula at the event indicates that Russia retains connections with another prominent Global South economy.
At a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Warsaw the day before the grand military parade in Moscow, the foreign policy chief of the EU, Kaja Kallas, remarked, “All those who genuinely support peace should be in Ukraine tomorrow [Friday], not Moscow.”
This comment seemed aimed at Mr. Fico, the sole EU leader who attended Victory Day.
Ms. Kallas was also alluding to a concurrent meeting in Lviv involving EU foreign ministers and Ukrainian officials.
During that session, also attended by the European Commissioner for Justice Michael McGrath and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, both the EU and the UK expressed their commitment to establishing a special tribunal to investigate war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.
All of this transpired on Europe Day, a day dedicated to celebrating peace and unity within the EU.
Despite efforts from U.S. President Donald Trump to rekindle relations with Russia in recent months to resolve the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s ongoing military campaign signifies that a thaw in relations remains a distant prospect.
This implies that the leaders gathering in Moscow for Victory Day each year will largely represent factions at odds with the West and democratic values.
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