A new report by the UN weather agency indicates that the world is likely to see more record-breaking temperatures in the coming five years, with Arctic warming expected to be over three times greater than the global average.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability that at least one of the upcoming five years will set heat records, and there is a significant chance that average warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Last year marked the hottest year ever recorded and saw the first violation of the Paris climate agreement established in 2015, which aimed to keep global warming below 1.5 C.
From this year through the end of 2029, the WMO projects that the global mean near-surface temperature will be between 1.2C and 1.9C higher than pre-industrial levels recorded from 1850 to 1900, further exacerbating extreme weather events.
“Every incremental rise in temperature leads to more detrimental heatwaves, severe rainfall, intense droughts, ice sheet and glacier melting, ocean warming, and increased sea levels,” the statement emphasized.
In the Arctic, the projected above-average warming will speed up ice melt in the Arctic and the northwest Pacific Ocean.
The report anticipates that Arctic warming will be over three-and-a-half times the global average, with temperatures expected to rise 2.4C above the most recent 30-year baseline during the next five winters.
The WMO report stated that overall global temperatures will stay at or near record levels through the end of the decade.
Between May and September of 2025 to 2029, above-average rainfall is expected in various regions, including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while drier-than-average conditions are forecasted this season for the Amazon, according to the weather agency.
