Voters in England are heading to the polls to participate in various local and mayoral elections, marking Labour’s inaugural electoral challenge since assuming power last year.
The voting commenced at 7am and is expected to conclude at 10pm.A by-election is also taking place in north-west England, succeeding the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury earlier this year after he was sentenced for assaulting a constituent.
Some opinion polls suggest that the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is currently the most favored party in England and anticipates making notable gains.
Six mayoralties are also up for grabs in regions including the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, North Tyneside, Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, Hull, and East Yorkshire.
Reform UK is aiming to secure victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, which has traditionally been viewed as a secure Labour seat.
A gauge of voter sentiment
While local elections often do not accurately predict outcomes in general elections, they provide some insight into voter sentiment.
Unlike in Ireland, local authorities in England do not hold elections simultaneously.
This election serves as the initial electoral examination for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, observes that the UK is witnessing the rise of “five-party politics,” as both Labour and the Conservative Party have experienced significant declines in support.
Conversely, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party have all noted increased backing.
Mr. English stated: “Despite Labour’s significant victory in 2024, their support has notably diminished; current polling shows them around 22/23%.”
“Reform UK has experienced a substantial uptick in polling, approximately 10 points, positioning themselves competitively alongside the Conservatives, who have not recovered from their disappointing 2024 showing.”
These elections will be regarded as the first electoral test for both Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and Kemi Badenoch as leader of the opposition.
The Conservative leader indicated that her party may face considerable losses in the elections.
Back in 2021, when these local elections were previously held, the Conservatives, under Boris Johnson’s leadership, were leading in opinion polls.
Ms. Badenoch has cautioned that her party is poised for substantial setbacks.
Reform UK aspires to claim hundreds of council seats, several mayoral positions, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
National subjects overshadowing local politics
A recent poll by More in Common revealed that potholes, council tax, and affordable housing rank as the top three local concerns for voters.
However, many voters will approach the polls with national issues also influencing their decisions.
In Dover, part of Kent County Council, many residents cite immigration as a primary concern.
This year alone, there have been over 10,000 small boat arrivals.
Sally Vokes expresses her support for Reform UK largely due to immigration concerns.
Local resident Sally Vokes notes that although she appreciates many policies of the Green Party, she plans to vote for Reform UK because of the issue of illegal immigration.
Ms. Vokes believes the town lacks the infrastructure to accommodate incoming individuals.
“The Green Party doesn’t seem to be addressing the immigration issue, and while I dislike voicing this concern, it’s a reality,” she said.
Councillor Trevor Bartlett leads the Conservative group on Dover District Council.
Although members of the district council are not up for election this year, Mr. Bartlett has been actively campaigning alongside colleagues seeking positions on Kent County Council.
Councillor Trevor Bartlett stated that immigration remains a ‘significant concern’ for residents in Dover town.
He explained that, despite Kent County Council lacking the authority to address the issue, illegal immigration and potholes frequently arise during door-to-door discussions.
“Many people in Dover town are genuinely worried about immigration numbers, yet it’s frustrating that we cannot intervene,” he remarked.
Kent County Council is currently dominated by the Conservative Party; however, some believe Reform UK is in a position to overtake it as the leading party.
Reform UK’s Paul King highlighted the party’s long-term vision towards 2029.
Paul King, a first-time candidate for Reform UK, acknowledged that immigration is not an issue the local authority can resolve, but he believes that the party’s gains would carry a significant message.
“We’re on a journey towards 2029, anticipating Nigel [Farage] in Number 10,” he noted, pointing to the UK’s next general election.
“Achieving success in local elections is a crucial part of that journey,” he added.
