The first time I saw what happened on October 7, 2023, I was having my morning coffee. A large number of photos, tweets, and retweets were streaming in my feeds on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Hamas fighters breached the fences around the Gaza Strip. I was watching all day as the events unfolded before my eyes. I was terrified not only about what was happening but also about what was to come.
My fears were not only about the aftermath of the assault but also about the retaliation from Israel, which I was sure would be brutal. My fears have become the reality we are seeing today. The constant reports of mass killings of children, women, and the elderly from Gaza are heartbreaking.
No one could have imagined the extent of the attack and the results of the Israeli retaliation. Approximately 1,400 Israelis were killed in and around the territories surrounding the Gaza Strip after Hamas fighters and a number of Gazans managed to break through the physical and digital defenses of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). After the Israeli forces retook the territories swamped by Hamas fighters, they began to bombard and assault the Strip, which is home to 2 million Palestinians. The IDF inflicted very painful and unfathomable damage in the Strip, killing tens of thousands of civilians and causing large-scale destruction of houses and infrastructure.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been ongoing for close to a century. Both peoples have lived in these territories for centuries under different ruling empires, mandates, and later on states, despite the non-existence of a universally recognized Palestinian state. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Palestinian territories were ruled by the British Empire.
After World War II and the Holocaust, Jews accelerated their quest to establish their own state in the Middle East to protect their population. Numerous wars have been fought over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the most notable ones were in 1948, 1954, 1967, and 1973.
Arab states have tried numerous times to defeat the Israeli state, but each attempt did not go as planned. I believe Arab states did not plan to free Palestinian territories in their wars against Israel. These wars were often used by Arab dictators to distract their populations from the mismanagement and repression that they were conducting internally in their countries. The Palestinian issue was used as a rallying flag for many decades, and yet Palestinians find themselves in a very precarious situation today.
After Arab states were either forced to remain quiet, like Algeria and Syria, or signed peace treaties with Israel like Egypt, UAE, Morroco and Bahrain, Iran remained the only challenge that Israel faces. The history of Iranian-Israeli relations is fascinating. The Shah’s regime in Iran had a cordial relationship with Israel before the Iranian Revolution. Both countries had diplomatic contacts and collaborated on a number of scientific and medical studies. Israel, in collaboration with the U.S., even helped Iran establish its nuclear infrastructure for peaceful energy use.
After the Iranian Revolution, the relationship ruptured, and animosity between the two countries increased, with Iran helping to establish organizations that are hostile to Israel, such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq-after Saddam fell. These organizations served as forward defense bases for Iran. There was a deterrence situation in the Middle East between Iran and Israel for decades, but that deterrence was shattered on October 7, 2023.
Hamas was established in Gaza as a result of Palestinian frustration over the lack of a rightful state and disillusionment with the Palestinian Authority. Hamas evolved into a sizable military force with capabilities such as manufacturing missiles and recruiting thousands of armed men and women. They also ruled the Gaza Strip.
The organization decided to conduct the October 7 operation primarily because Israel managed to sign peace treaties with a few Arab states under the umbrella of the Abraham Accords. These Arab states dropped the prerequisite condition of the Arab League, which was that no peace treaty with Israel would be established until a Palestinian state was formed based on the territories before the 1967 war.
Hamas felt that the Palestinian issue would soon be ignored unless they did something so spectacular that the issue would once again be in the spotlight. The biggest prize of these treaties would have been the one between Saudi Arabia and Israel, so to prevent that, Hamas conducted the October 7 operation. The attack shattered the illusion of Israeli invincibility and showcased the hubris and overconfidence of the Israeli intelligence community. This failure will haunt the Israelis for years to come. The attack resulted in the highest number of Israeli deaths in a single incident since the Holocaust. The destruction inflicted on the Strip was far greater, with tens of thousands of deaths, widespread destruction, and a total blockade of the city that resulted in starvation and blackouts.
Hamas was among the organizations that Iran supported with finances, weaponry, and training. It is not known if Hamas shared their attack plan, but what they did in that attack paved the way for shattering the deterrence and enabled direct confrontation between Israel and Iran through bombing and missile strikes in their respective territories.
Iran, despite its economic weaknesses due to long-term sanctions, managed to build a formidable military and weapons manufacturing infrastructure, producing ballistic missiles and sophisticated drones that made it possible for Iran to defend itself and inflict significant damage on Israeli cities and towns. Israel, with U.S. support, built a strong air force armed with the latest fighter jets and air defense systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
The era of Arab supremacy has long gone, with Iraq, Syria, and Egypt absent from the strategic decisions made for the region. Turkey, Israel, and Iran are now the dominant players in the Middle East.
The result of the October 7 attack by Hamas will be remembered as a turning point for the Middle East in which Arabs will be either forced to recognize the Israeli state or become isolated. The expansion of the Abraham Accords will soon continue, with Syria and Saudi Arabia beginning to plan negotiations for peace treaties with Israel. With Arab power fading and Iran’s weakness, the prospects of establishing a Palestinian state are further away than ever before, but granting Palestinians their rightful state will be one of the cornerstones for a peaceful Middle East.
Amin Jamal amiinjamal25@gmail.com