Tomorrow, Polish citizens will head to the polls for a critical second-round election to determine whether centrist Rafal Trzaskowski or conservative Karol Nawrocki will assume the presidency.
The last two weeks of campaigning have created a fiercely competitive race between candidates from Poland’s dominant political factions: the centre-right Civic Platform and the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.
This tight contest was anticipated, given that both parties have significantly influenced Polish politics for over 20 years, with a longstanding rivalry.
Recent polls indicated both candidates neck-and-neck at 47%, or with a narrow lead for either; the outcome appears to be extremely close.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, aligned with PiS, has vetoed or delayed around two dozen bills passed by Donald Tusk’s coalition government in the last 18 months, obstructing its attempts to reverse judicial reforms implemented during PiS’s governance from 2015 to 2023.
The coalition has also refrained from proposing liberalization of abortion laws, aware that Mr. Duda would likely block such efforts.
Left-leaning, liberal, and centrist voters perceive a Nawrocki presidency as continuity or even deterioration.
Centrist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly lost the last presidential election in 2020.
Although Poland’s presidency is primarily ceremonial, the officeholder wields the power to veto parliamentary bills.
A 60% majority in parliament can override the veto, but Mr. Tusk’s government lacks the necessary numbers.
The president also acts as the commander-in-chief of Poland’s armed forces and oversees defense and security policy, holding significant influence.
According to Andrzej Bobinski, managing director of Polityka Insight, the campaign has been “99% ideological and maybe 1% issue-based.”
Mr. Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw who narrowly lost to Mr. Duda in 2020, has maintained a lead throughout the campaign.
However, his advantage nearly vanished in the first round.
In response, Mr. Trzaskowski and his team have concentrated on galvanizing more leftist and progressive voters, particularly young women, many of whom feel disillusioned by the ruling coalition’s lack of progress on liberalizing Poland’s strict abortion laws.
“Women hardly believe that with a President from the same political spectrum, anything will change,” remarked Magdalena Jakubowska, vice-president of the Res Publica Foundation in Warsaw.
At recent rallies, Mr. Trzaskowski’s wife, Malgorzata Trzaskowska, has prominently supported her husband as the candidate backing women’s rights.
While he advocates for liberalization of current abortion laws, he has not prioritized the issue in his campaign as he did in 2020, aiming not to alienate conservative voters from rural and small-town Poland.
Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki currently leads Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance.
Mr. Nawrocki, stepping into a challenger role in this race, is a historian and social conservative, albeit lacking political experience.
As the head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, a government body overseeing the nation’s history, he was formerly the director of the Gdansk Museum of the Second World War.
Though officially an independent candidate, he enjoys full support from PiS’s political machinery.
His campaign has not been without controversy, notably accusations regarding the questionable purchase of a flat in the late 2000s from an elderly man in Gdansk, accompanied by a promise to care for the pensioner.
Subsequent reports revealed that the elderly man now resides in a care facility, not in the apartment.
Mr. Nawrocki has firmly denied any wrongdoing, asserting he continued to provide financial support to the elderly man.
Links to football ultras during his youth have also emerged.
Despite these scandals, his campaign remains intact as he secures support from the PiS voter base.
“Karol Nawrocki essentially needs to cater to right-wing and extreme right voters. He must mobilize his base and garner support from everyone right of Law and Justice,” stated Mr. Bobinski.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trzaskowski is “attempting to unite individuals who reject the return of Law and Justice to power.”
A significant political trend in this campaign has been the rise in support for far-right candidates.
In the first-round vote, 21% of Polish voters opted for one of two far-right candidates.
People in Warsaw watched presidential candidates Karol Nawrocki (L) and Rafal Trzaskowski debate live on public broadcaster TVP on May 12.
Recently, the more popular far-right candidate, Slawomir Mentzen, who garnered 15% of votes in the first round, invited both Mr. Trzaskowski and Mr. Nawrocki for discussions on his YouTube channel.
Mr. Mentzen presented eight demands for them to agree upon in order for his 2.9 million voters to decide whom to support in the second round.
The interviews were engaging but might not significantly influence the final outcome.
During the exchanges, Mr. Nawrocki appeared less convincing and eagerly agreed to the far-right leader’s eight demands, aiming to win over his voters.
He endorsed all eight demands, including a commitment to oppose Ukraine’s future NATO membership, a point Mr. Trzaskowski declined to support.
Mr. Trzaskowski performed better, likely appealing to libertarians among Mr. Mentzen’s voters, who favor his low tax agenda over ultra-nationalistic views.
Additionally, the two candidates shared a beer after their YouTube debate, a moment that captured attention on Polish social media.
Videos of them enjoying a pint in Mr. Mentzen’s craft beer pub, alongside Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski, became a PR highlight and could translate into additional votes for Warsaw’s mayor.
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Ultimately, Mr. Mentzen chose not to endorse either candidate, rendering the event more of a self-promotion for the far-right leader seeking to disrupt Poland’s longstanding political duopoly.
Nonetheless, a considerable segment of far-right voters might still choose the conservative candidate tomorrow, aligning better with their nationalist and socially conservative ideologies.
Despite a vibrant debate on Polish public television and two mass rallies by both candidates last weekend, there was no evident shift toward either contender.
Supporters of Trzaskowski or Nawrocki are unlikely to switch allegiance at this stage.
Instead, younger voters, who favored more radical, anti-establishment parties in the initial round, may sway the election outcome for one candidate or the other.
If far-right supporters turnout in large numbers for Mr. Nawrocki, he may prevail.
Conversely, if Mr. Trzaskowski mobilizes more leftist and liberal voters, particularly women, he could emerge victorious.
Regardless of the outcome, the election is poised to be very close.
“I anticipate a slim margin between the two candidates. It could genuinely be a 50-50 situation, with 200,000 to 300,000 votes determining the result,” commented Ms. Jakubowska.
