After a delay of a day, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met face-to-face in Istanbul yesterday for the first time in over three years.
However, doubts persisted regarding the potential for any substantial progress prior to the discussions.
The prospect of a significant breakthrough was quickly dashed when Russia announced late Wednesday that it would send a delegation of deputy ministers led by former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who initially called for the talks to circumvent a European ultimatum for an unconditional ceasefire, did not plan to attend the meeting in Istanbul.
Vladimir Medinsky and the Russian delegation at talks in Istanbul
As Russia did not send high-ranking officials, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, currently in Ankara with his foreign and defense ministers for a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, faced a swift decision regarding who to send to Istanbul.
Sending a full contingent of senior ministers to negotiate with Russia’s lesser officials would make Kyiv appear foolish.
Instead, he chose to lead the delegation with Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, demonstrating that Ukraine is taking the talks seriously, according to Mr. Dickinson.
Zelensky challenges Putin to meet him
Last Monday, the Ukrainian president had already challenged Mr. Putin to a face-to-face discussion in Istanbul.
Yet, in classic Kremlin fashion, Mr. Zelensky and the public were left waiting three days for a response.
When the response finally arrived, it was evident that Russia was merely paying lip service to U.S. calls for both parties to engage in peace talks.
“Medinsky is essentially a Ukrainophobe. From his writings, he maintains that Ukraine is not a nation.”
By appointing Mr. Medinsky to lead its delegation, Moscow signaled its view that these talks are a continuation of the previous discussions from March 2022.
He confirmed this during a press briefing on Thursday, stating that the objective of his team was to “achieve long-term peace by addressing the fundamental causes of the conflict.”
Defence Minister Rustem Umerov led the Ukrainian delegation
The former culture minister had previously led the Russian delegation during the unsuccessful March 2022 talks, which collapsed due to unacceptable Russian demands that amounted to what would effectively be a Ukrainian surrender.
“Medinsky is basically a Ukrainophobe. His writings reflect his belief that Ukraine is not a nation,” noted Witold Rodkiewicz, a Polish expert on Russian foreign policy at Warsaw’s Centre for Eastern Studies.
Russia’s key demands remain unchanged since March 2022: the demilitarization of Ukraine (rendering it defenseless), recognition of Russia’s annexation of additional occupied Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine’s declaration of neutrality, abandoning its NATO aspirations.
However, Russia’s delegation reportedly escalated its demands yesterday, according to a Ukrainian diplomatic source cited by Reuters.
Russia made ‘unacceptable demands’ – Ukraine source
According to the source, Russia issued “unacceptable demands” for Ukraine to relinquish more territory than it currently occupies.
This mirrors a demand made by Mr. Putin last year regarding the annexation of entire eastern Ukrainian regions.
Ukraine’s priority continues to focus on obtaining a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, a U.S. proposal that Kyiv accepted in March, and that has backing from European nations. This month-long pause aims to facilitate thorough negotiations on security guarantees and the potential role of a European peace monitoring force.
However, Russia has repeatedly rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal and opposes the involvement of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a potential settlement.
Just a week ago, leaders from France, Germany, Poland, and the UK, during a meeting with Mr. Zelensky in Kyiv, issued Russia an ultimatum to agree to an unconditional ceasefire by Monday or face new sanctions.
But Mr. Putin undermined that ultimatum by proposing direct talks in Istanbul, an offer welcomed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who encouraged Mr. Zelensky to accept immediately.
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the direct talks in Istanbul
Mr. Rodkiewicz asserted that Washington’s agreement to Moscow’s proposal for talks “effectively compromised” the European stance.
Any hope for a significant breakthrough in Istanbul was ultimately dashed by Mr. Trump, who stated on Air Force One that progress would only occur when he and Mr. Putin convene.
Developments from 90-minute meeting
Nonetheless, a few developments emerged from yesterday’s 90-minute meeting in Istanbul.
Firstly, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, acting as a mediator, announced that both sides agreed to share their conditions for achieving a ceasefire.
Mr. Fidan’s initial statement underscoring the critical need for a ceasefire supports Ukraine’s position, yet remains ineffective without the U.S. applying meaningful economic pressure on Russia for compliance.
Secondly, an agreement was reached to exchange 1,000 prisoners in the coming days, which would mark the largest prisoner swap of the conflict.
Hakan Fidan said both sides have agreed to share their conditions for reaching a ceasefire
Thirdly, Russia acknowledged Ukraine’s request for direct talks between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky, though it remains uncertain if the Kremlin will entertain the request.
Mr. Medinsky indicated that his team was “ready to continue contacts.”
While not a breakthrough, this represents a significant step towards further technical discussions.
It is abundantly clear from this week’s diplomatic maneuvering from the Kremlin that it is neither interested in nor pressured enough to engage in high-level talks with Ukraine.
Moscow’s priority appears to focus on negotiating core issues, or the “root causes,” with the U.S., separate from Ukraine and European influence.
Officers from the Ukrainian delegation leave after a meeting with the Russian delegates
“From the Russian perspective, these discussions signify that they do not view Ukraine as an entity but rather as a topic of negotiation, something to discuss rather than engage with,” remarked Oleksandr Kraiev, a Ukrainian foreign policy expert at the Ukrainian Prism think tank in Kyiv.
This approach from Moscow, he noted, traces back to 2015 during the Minsk-II discussions between Russia and Ukraine, then brokered by France and Germany in an attempt to resolve Russia’s proxy conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Pro-Russian separatists, supported by Moscow, violated the Minsk-II ceasefire mere hours after it was signed.
“Russia aims to dissociate the normalization issue with the Trump administration from settling the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
The Kremlin’s ongoing subterfuge and refusal to engage in ceasefire discussions have exhausted the patience of European leaders, especially those who visited Kyiv last weekend to stand in solidarity with Mr. Zelensky.
Another substantial package of EU and UK sanctions against Russia is forthcoming, but its effectiveness could diminish if the U.S. continues allowing Russia to dictate the agenda for talks as it has thus far.
After yesterday’s discussions in Istanbul, Ukraine is advocating for a meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to exert pressure on the Russian side while demonstrating to the U.S. that Ukraine is more committed to peace.
Further technical talks between both parties now seem probable, yet Mr. Trump’s remarks on Thursday about the necessity of his meeting with Mr. Putin foreshadow the next significant step in this process.
The Kremlin has reciprocated by expressing a desire for a Trump-Putin summit, yet emphasized that considerable pre-planning would be required, suggesting a meeting isn’t imminent.
“Russia seeks to separate the normalization issue with the Trump administration from the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” stated Mr. Rodkiewicz.
“Mr. Putin’s actions on Sunday were designed to impose his own agenda and entirely redirect the trajectory that both the Europeans and Trump intended.”
