Voters in Poland are participating in a closely contested presidential election that could significantly impact the future of the centrist government, as well as abortion and LGBTQ rights.
Pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is projected to receive 30% of the vote, while nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki is expected to garner 25%, based on recent opinion polls.
This result would lead both candidates to a runoff on June 1, amid heightened tensions in Europe due to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the rise of far-right populism, and strained relations with Washington.
Out of a total of 13 candidates, final results are anticipated tomorrow.
The electoral campaign in this EU and NATO member has primarily centered on foreign policy, revealing a conflict of ideologies regarding Poland’s ties with the EU and the United States.
However, social issues have also been a significant focus.
The expectation is for Mr. Trzaskowski to secure 30% of the vote, according to opinion polls.
Mr. Trzaskowski, age 53, has committed to championing abortion and LGBTQ rights.
On the other hand, the Law and Justice party (PiS), which supports Mr. Nawrocki, has often clashed with Poland’s Western allies and EU institutions in Brussels over rule-of-law issues. The party lost power in 2023.
Mr. Nawrocki, 42, is a supporter of Donald Trump and mentioned that the US president told him, “You will win,” during their recent meeting at the White House.
A crucial factor in the election may be whether supporters of Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right candidate currently polling third with around 12%, choose to vote for Mr. Nawrocki in the second round.
Mr. Mentzen holds a Eurosceptic libertarian stance and is vehemently opposed to abortion and immigration. He has accused Poland’s one million Ukrainian refugees of exploiting the country.
The ruling coalition is optimistic that a win for Mr. Trzaskowski would allow it to fulfill previously unfulfilled campaign promises.
Karol Nawrocki has expressed admiration for US President Donald Trump.
Mr. Tusk’s administration has faced hurdles in relaxing Poland’s restrictive abortion laws and implementing other reforms, largely due to the president’s veto powers, much to the dismay of some voters.
The president of Poland serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, guides foreign policy, and has the authority to introduce and veto laws.
According to political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska, “With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralyzed, possibly leading to the collapse of the ruling coalition.”
She also noted that his victory could signal “the resurgence of populists with renewed strength” in the next general election.
The stakes are considerable for Europe.
Under Mr. Tusk, Poland has gained increased significance on the continent, solidifying its role as a critical voice on NATO’s eastern front against Russian aggression.
Ms. Materska-Sosnowska emphasized that this election is vital for “efforts to halt the anti-democratic, populist trends sweeping across Europe.”
