The Mathematics of the Papal Conclave: A Statistical Overview
The Vatican’s papal conclave, tasked with electing a new spiritual leader for the 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, is guided by traditions and protocols that have developed over centuries.
However, this year’s conclave will be shaped by unique arithmetic:
133 Cardinal-electors
A historic number of cardinals are eligible to cast their votes in this conclave.
This is an increase from the 115 cardinals who participated in the previous two conclaves held in 2005 and 2013.
Among these cardinals, 52 are from Europe, 23 from Asia, 17 from South or Central America, 17 from Africa, 20 from North America, and four from Oceania.
69 countries
The cardinal-electors represent 69 countries across five continents, marking another record, plus Jerusalem.
70 years and three months
The average age of the cardinal-electors is 70 years and three months.
The youngest cardinal in this conclave is Mykola Bychok, the archbishop of Melbourne, at 45.
The oldest is Carlos Osoro Sierra, a Spaniard who, at 79 years and 11 months, is nearing the upper limit for voting age.
81.2%
A significant majority, 81.2%, of the 133 cardinal-electors were appointed by Pope Francis during his 12 years of leadership at the Holy See.
These 108 cardinals are participating in their first conclave.
Among the more experienced, 20 were appointed by Benedict XVI and five by John Paul II.
17 Italians
Historically, both the papacy and the college of cardinals have been largely influenced by Italians, but their numbers have decreased as the church has become more global.
Nonetheless, with 17 cardinals, Italy remains the largest national representation, down from 28 in 2013.
15 new countries
This conclave sees representation from 15 countries for the first time, including cardinals from Haiti, Cape Verde, Papua New Guinea, and South Sudan.
Faithful spectators view a giant screen displaying images of the cardinal procession to the Sistine Chapel.
18 religious orders
The Catholic Church encompasses various religious orders. For instance, Pope Francis is a Jesuit, and 18 different movements will have representatives in the Sistine Chapel during the voting process.
Four votes per day
If an initial ballot does not yield a clear winner, the cardinals will cast their votes four times each day—twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon—until a majority is reached.
89-vote majority
The newly elected pope must secure a two-thirds majority. With 133 members present, 89 cardinals must include his name on their secret ballots.
Two stoves
The ballots submitted by the cardinals are incinerated in a stove, ensuring the confidentiality of the process and signaling progress to the faithful waiting outside the sealed chapel.
Currently, there are two stoves in use, connected to the same chimney.
In one, the ballots are burned, while in the other, a chemical compound produces either black smoke—indicating no majority yet—or white smoke—a sign that a new pope has been elected.
Two days?
If a majority is not quickly achieved, theoretically, a conclave could prolong itself for weeks or even months.
In practice, however, the last two conclaves—the election of Benedict XVI in 2005 and Francis in 2013—were concluded in two days.
In the 20th and 21st centuries, no conclave has lasted longer than five days, as seen during Pope Pius XI’s election in 1922, which necessitated 14 ballots.